The Definition of The Truth

This article gives a definition of the truth based on the opinions of a certain group of people. The truth is estimated for a certain question by opinions giving a handy tool for decision-making systems.

The truth T is defined as:

Limeswhere O(t) denotes the opinion of a certain group of people at a time t.

O(t) function is defined as follows:

  1. A group of people is given a question which can be answered by “yes”, “no” or “empty”. The question can have also more valid answers, but for the sake of simplicity the set of answers is now restricted to these three alternatives.
  2. A probability distribution of the answers is determined by sequential polls from the group of people at times tx, where x is {1,2,…,∞}.
  3. The probability distribution of the answers at a time x is standardized to remove noise from the answers for example to 5% intervals.
  4. Now the obtained standardized probability functions are used to determine the trend of answers with a linear least-square estimation. The slope of the linear estimation then determines which answers are candidate answers for O(t).
  5. If only one answer has a positive slope, then O(t) is that answer. If multiple answers have a positive slope or none of the answers have a positive slope, then O(t) is that answer, which has the highest number of answers measured in the last poll.

An Example

As an example we would like to determine the truth for a question: “Whether Finland should continue with sanctions policy against Russia?”

Finland has a population of about 5,5 million so conducting a poll for all people is not easy. Therefore we suppose that a small set of answers is already enough to determine the truth for the Finnish population.

As a result we get the following probability distributions during time:

  • 2014: 78% “yes”, 15% “no”, 7% “empty”
  • 2015: 65% “yes”, 30% “no”, 5% “empty”
  • 2016: 55% “yes”, 41% “no”, 4% “empty”

These are standardized to the following probability distributions:

  • 2014: 80% “yes”, 15% “no”, 5% “empty”
  • 2015: 65% “yes”, 30% “no”, 5% “empty”
  • 2016: 55% “yes”, 40% “no”, 5% “empty”

As can be seen, the only answer which has a positive slope is “no” and therefore for this question truth T = “no”.

Characteristics of The Truth

The truth does not represent the opinion of the majority. Rather it represents the estimated convergence of poll answers during time. The truth is determined with this kind of method faster than would take time when truth is based on the opinion of the majority. The truth changes during time when new estimates are obtained via polls. However, if the opinions are measured within a large group of people, then the truth is expected to be quite stable during time, because changing the truth requires a change in the opinions of a large number of people.

Governmental Structure Based On The Truth

Government of the world, a country, a county, a city or a municipality should be based on truth. This would make obsolete the decision-making done in governmental institutions. If the measured truth is something else than governmental laws, the laws should be changed. Politicians would be reduced to only think-tanks and marketing groups who can influence the poll answers, but they would not directly decide what changes are needed in the country. Politicians would take part in making new legislation, but the framework of the legislation would be based on the measured truth concerning the issue being legislated. This way the governmental structure would be stable. The current governmental structures are prone to errors, because a small number of people make decision and therefore the governmental structure is vulnerable to e.g., bribing, threats or all kinds of thinking biases which can result from small decision groups.

The truth measurement system should be built on open source code, because that way all kind of bugs and transparency of data flows would be guaranteed. The system would be accessed with user identification commonly used in banking and governmental services and all people inside the measured region should be able to give their answers. Also the answers could be changed at any time and the questions would be categorized such that people can answer only those categories they are interested in. Any user could create questions and those questions which would have answers with highest or lowest slopes would be presented more often to users to gain better estimate of the truth for questions that have varying truth estimate.

John 8:32 “Then you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.”

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